The major findings from the new Milliman report include:

  • Approximately 6.9 million non-low income Medicare Part D beneficiaries currently enrolled in preferred pharmacy PDPs may experience material premium and cost sharing increases in 2015 on average based on provisions in the Proposed Rule using assumptions derived from survey responses.
  • Federal government subsidies for approximately 6.0 million low income Medicare Part D beneficiaries currently enrolled in preferred pharmacy PDPs may increase in 2015 on average based on provisions in the Proposed Rule using assumptions derived from survey responses.
  • Up to 50% of Part D plan choices may be eliminated or materially changed during 2015 and 2016 based on provisions in the Proposed Rule using assumptions derived from survey responses.
  • The average bid amount for beneficiaries enrolled in preferred pharmacy PDPs may increase by 10% in 2015 based on Proposed Rule provisions using assumptions derived from survey responses. The average bid amount represents the net cost of PDP benefits, which is funded by federal government subsidies and beneficiary premiums.
  • Costs to the federal government may increase by $1.2 to $1.6 billion in 2015 as a result of provisions in the Proposed Rule based on assumptions derived from survey responses. We expect that costs of a similar magnitude will occur in future years as many Proposed Rule provisions will incur costs on an ongoing basis.

View the complete report.